Presidential Debate Round One --- Obama vs Romney
Wednesday, October 3rd, 2012 from 9–10:30pm on CT FOX Channel WTIC
Part 2 of a short series of articles by Tim D. EnchanterWhat can be said about this debate which has not already been said? Perhaps the best indication of how good this debate was for the Republican Party was the published Unemployment Rate two days later. Seeing it drop below 8% for the first time in 4 years told me volumes about Mitt Romney’s debating skills.
Apparently, there are two surveys used to determine this rate as well as an estimate of how many people are still looking for work. The survey most people are familiar with is conducted with about 150,000 companies and has reported the creation of 114,000 new jobs. The other survey we are not familiar with is a phone survey of about 50,000 homes asking if anyone is working or doing anything to earn money. That survey shows 873,000 new jobs.
If someone is selling things they found in their attic on eBay to try to make ends meet then apparently that counts as someone now working or earning money. How they extrapolate 873,000 jobs from a phone poll of 50,000 homes is unknown to me but we are told that the government employees know what they are doing.
Meanwhile, the total population of people looking for work has decreased as those who have been unemployed for over two years are no longer eligible for unemployment insurance compensation. Apparently, the decrease of the estimated number of people looking for work and the increase of the estimated number of people working has resulted in a decrease in the unemployment rate, dropping that rate to 7.8%.
This good news will probably affect the expected “bounce” that Mitt Romney will receive from his debate performance, lowering that bounce by increasing President Obama’s Approval Rating.
It is certainly plausible that the poll numbers comparing President Obama to Mitt Romney will reflect the good news of the unemployment rate as well as Mitt Romney’s good debate performance. So when you see those poll numbers, you can assume that any increase in popularity Mitt Romney experiences would have been higher if the unemployment rate had not improved.
On a personal note, allow me to give some insight on how my life is affected by all this.